| |
BGonline.org Forums
And the best 3 is...?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: And the best 3 is...? (Ben E.)
Date: Tuesday, 11 October 2011, at 7:42 p.m.
[After bar/20 8/5] it's quite dangerous and probably wrong for White to hit loose inside.
Think so? That doesn't seem right, but it's interesting.
If Blue stays on the 20 point, all 4's, 1's, 6-2 and 5-3 can hit. That's 24/36 rolls. 4 of them point, which leaves 20 possible loose hits. If White doesn't hit, White can't even safety his outfield blot with 8 of them -- 6-2, 5-3, 1-2 and 1-5.
So would you agree that hitting should definitely be best with any of those 8 rolls?
Let's look at the other 12. If White hits, Blue is an underdog to hit back. Sure, if Blue doesn't hit back, White doesn't always cover the 5 point immediately. Ok, but White should still be a favorite after hitting, right?
If White doesn't hit with those 12 numbers, how does he plan to win? Blue should have no trouble bringing his blot out, and then bringing that checker and other two back checkers around. Since White's outfield coverage will soon be gone, it looks like White's main winning chances are either racing off the anchor or hitting a fly shot from the anchor. Would you think White's a favorite to win that way? Consider also, that if White hits and Blue hits back, White would still have some chance of racing to a win, and should retain most of his winning chances that come from hitting from his anchor.
Suppose White rolls 4-3. Compare two plays, the wide open 13/10 8/4*, which leaves 3 blots and nevertheless looks to me to be clearly best, and the best safe play 13/9 6/3. After which play do you most like White's chances? Doesn't 13/10 8/4* seem better? If it doesn't, does it help to consider this: if after not hitting, a big part of White's winning chances would come from hitting a fly shot later, might White not be a lot better off by hitting that "fly shot" now?
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.