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54 to play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 4:06 p.m.

In Response To: 54 to play (Dmitriy Obukhov)

If we hit, White will hit back with any 2 or 3, as well as 11 51 55 65; that's 26 return shots, some of which double hit. White's gammons will then win the match. If White doesn't hit back, how well are we doing? Do we have a cube? In most cases I think so; our recube will kill White's gammons.

Suppose we don't hit, playing something like 8/3 6/2 or 9/5 8/3. Then we're playing a kind of holding game. White's checkers are all on White points, which is not very flexible. I'd guess that our game-winning chances are around 30%.

Though it's often right to hit when White's checkers are all escaped, even when it gives a lot of return shots, I would not hit here. It is an interesting question how the score affects the decision. Though being behind in the match normally indicates going for an aggressive, gammonish play, White's gammon value on a 2-cube is slightly elevated here (around 0.6 I think), so leaving so many shots is more costly than at a normal score.

Messages In This Thread

• 54 to play
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 7:40 a.m.
  • 54 to play
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 8:25 a.m.
  • 54 to play
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
  • 54 to play
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 4:12 p.m.
  • 54 to play
    Stick -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 5:12 p.m.
  • 54 to play *RO*
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 14 October 2011, at 3:09 p.m.
    • 54 to play *RO*
      Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 14 October 2011, at 3:29 p.m.
      • 54 to play *RO*
        Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 14 October 2011, at 4:08 p.m.
        • 54 to play *RO*
          Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 14 October 2011, at 4:53 p.m.
    • 54 to play *RO*
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 14 October 2011, at 11:24 p.m.