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BGonline.org Forums
Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Many choices = many opportunities to blunder (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 9:04 p.m.
20/9 might be right, but if it is, not very much because it would have to go next turn anyway. For most numbers, playing from the 20 will not be blocked
All numbers that don't have a 6/5/4 in it are blocked, that's 9. [11 22 33 21 31 32] On top of that what if you make the ace point and roll a 62 or 53 next turn? So while 'most' numbers is true by definition, I don't think it's true by meaning.
I don't give much weight here to making points in order -- any 5 point board should often be useful.
Ugh. You can keep going with these examples but making your points in order is often a lot more important than people think.
White is Player 1
score: 4
pip: 1347 point match pip: 99
score: 5
Blue is Player 2XGID=-B-BBBB-----b---BccbBc-bA-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 74.11% (G:17.79% B:0.31%) 72.95% (G:23.52% B:0.49%) Opponent Winning Chances: 25.89% (G:4.21% B:0.08%) 27.05% (G:4.37% B:0.11%) Cubeless Equities +0.774 +1.414 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.826 (-0.004) Double/Take: +0.830 Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.170) Best Cube action: Double / Take
White is Player 1
score: 4
pip: 1367 point match pip: 99
score: 5
Blue is Player 2XGID=--BBBBB-----b---BccbBc-bA-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 71.36% (G:17.34% B:0.29%) 69.95% (G:21.74% B:0.35%) Opponent Winning Chances: 28.64% (G:4.72% B:0.11%) 30.05% (G:5.12% B:0.14%) Cubeless Equities +0.702 +1.233 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.744 Double/Take: +0.591 (-0.153) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.256) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 27.2%
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