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Many choices = many opportunities to blunder

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 9:04 p.m.

In Response To: Many choices = many opportunities to blunder (Daniel Murphy)

20/9 might be right, but if it is, not very much because it would have to go next turn anyway. For most numbers, playing from the 20 will not be blocked

All numbers that don't have a 6/5/4 in it are blocked, that's 9. [11 22 33 21 31 32] On top of that what if you make the ace point and roll a 62 or 53 next turn? So while 'most' numbers is true by definition, I don't think it's true by meaning.

I don't give much weight here to making points in order -- any 5 point board should often be useful.

Ugh. You can keep going with these examples but making your points in order is often a lot more important than people think.





White is Player 1

score: 4
pip: 134
7 point match
pip: 99
score: 5

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-B-BBBB-----b---BccbBc-bA-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.11% (G:17.79% B:0.31%) 72.95% (G:23.52% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.89% (G:4.21% B:0.08%) 27.05% (G:4.37% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.774 +1.414
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.826 (-0.004)
Double/Take:+0.830
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.170)
Best Cube action: Double / Take





White is Player 1

score: 4
pip: 136
7 point match
pip: 99
score: 5

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BBBBB-----b---BccbBc-bA-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.36% (G:17.34% B:0.29%) 69.95% (G:21.74% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.64% (G:4.72% B:0.11%) 30.05% (G:5.12% B:0.14%)
Cubeless Equities +0.702 +1.233
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.744
Double/Take:+0.591 (-0.153)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.256)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 27.2%

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