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BGonline.org Forums
Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Many choices = many opportunities to blunder (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 10:17 p.m.
Good points both.
(1) Yes, right now, we can't play 1's, 2's and 3's from the 20 point, and the midpoint, 8-away, is also blocking 6-2 5-3 and 4-4. I know what most means as well as you do, and you count rolls as well as I do.
If we look a little more deeply, though, that's not the whole blockage story, because White must move before we do. I've looked now at Gnubg's 2-ply temperature map for White's play after 7/1 6/1 ... D/T ... ? First, 9 rolls (66 64 63 53 11) put us on the bar. Second, 7 rolls (66 and 11 again, 65 55 33 22) vacate the midpoint.
So, 19% of the time, we'll be trying to enter, not trying to play directly from the 20 or 16 point (it may be true that some entering numbers will play awkwardly without a spare on the 9 point, but then again if we play 20/9 now, some 18 numbers put us on the bar and often we'll just be trying to come in and moving from the 16 point). Another 19% of the time -- when White has cleared or partially cleared his midpoint -- I suspect that running from the 16 point will be more attractive than running a checker from the 20 point. That's why I said "When it is [blocked], playing from the 16 point might be right next turn anyway."
(2) That 5-4 would have been a better number than 6-5, and that a 65432 board is better than a 65431 board, was not in dispute, was it? What I meant was: I don't "give much weight" here to thinking "I'm not going to make the ace point now because it would be better to make the deuce point (first)." The choice available to us is not whether to make a 65432 board or a 65431 board. The choice is whether to make a 65431 board, or keep our 6543 board and play our 6-5 elsewhere.
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