As others have noted, there's a lot to think about in this position. Recognizing that we might be facing an immediate cube ATS, I used XG's "rollout for both no double and double" option. The display below doesn't show this, but the rollout indicated ND after 20/9 (although it's very close and 2592 games isn't enough to be stat sig), D/T after 7/1 6/1 or 20/15 20/14, and ND after 20/14 7/2. On my snail of a machine I didn't feel like rolling out 16/11 16/10 or any other plays but if someone is willing to do so, I'd be curious to see if there is anything else that isn't in whopper territory.
I also rolled out the position for money with Blue owning the cube. 7/1 6/1 comes out on top in that case. Again, someone with superior computer power may want to confirm this result, but if it's correct, then that's an indication of the subtlety of the decision here.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 5
pip: 99 | | 7 point match | pip: 145
score: 4
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---BBBCA----b---BccbBc-bA-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/9 | eq: -0.828 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.39% (G:5.09% B:0.25%)
72.61% (G:22.71% B:1.10%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.839...-0.817)
Duration: 10 hours 09 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/1 6/1 | eq: -0.901 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.13% (G:5.29% B:0.13%)
73.87% (G:26.20% B:0.70%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.918...-0.884)
Duration: 8 hours 22 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/15 20/14 | eq: -0.923 (-0.095) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.85% (G:5.23% B:0.26%)
74.15% (G:32.98% B:1.65%) | Conf: ± 0.018 (-0.941...-0.905)
Duration: 8 hours 55 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 20/14 7/2 | eq: -0.937 (-0.109) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.09% (G:5.18% B:0.40%)
73.91% (G:30.31% B:2.53%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.950...-0.924)
Duration: 6 hours 55 minutes |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 16/11 16/10 | eq: -1.000 (-0.172) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.64% (G:2.74% B:0.09%)
77.36% (G:12.66% B:0.35%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 16/5 | eq: -1.000 (-0.172) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.69% (G:3.62% B:0.13%)
76.31% (G:16.17% B:0.47%) | |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 2
First 3 moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube Decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
For money with Blue owning the cube:
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 99 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---BBBCA----b---BccbBc-bA-:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/1 6/1 | eq: -0.510 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.26% (G:3.88% B:0.10%)
74.74% (G:14.64% B:0.18%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.516...-0.504)
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/9 | eq: -0.533 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.43% (G:5.35% B:0.22%)
72.57% (G:23.10% B:0.41%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.540...-0.526)
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/11 16/10 | eq: -0.577 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.37% (G:2.47% B:0.06%)
78.63% (G:9.78% B:0.21%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.583...-0.571)
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 16/10 7/2 | eq: -0.574 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.97% (G:3.58% B:0.15%)
76.03% (G:16.43% B:0.43%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 16/5 | eq: -0.580 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.38% (G:3.47% B:0.15%)
76.62% (G:15.60% B:0.41%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 20/15 20/14 | eq: -0.586 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.15% (G:4.87% B:0.18%)
72.85% (G:25.75% B:0.96%) | |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21