Oh how I wish that our checker/blot on the two point was moved back in play preferably on our 8pt for eg. That would make this a much easier decision. Let's do the work:
- Double/Pass puts us to 4 away 4 away or 50% ME
- Double/Take/Lose gives us 4 away 3 away for 43% ME
- Double/Take/Win gives us 2 away 5 away or 75% ME
We'd be risking 7% (50-43) to gain 25% (75-50). Inputting those numbers into risk/(risk+gain) we get: 7/(7+25) or 7/32 = 22% as our non adjusted dead cube take point. Looking at our recubes to 4 our opponent's live cube take point since he'll automatically recube for the match is somewhere between 25-26%. That means our recube vig should be worth a little more than normal so I'd guess our cube vig adjusted take point goes from 22% to ~18%.
Now the problem, gammons. Both our and our opponent's gammon value on a 2 cube is elevated since it puts us out exactly and brings our opponent to the Crawford game. I have these memorized and put them both for memory around 0.80 but I remember that our opponent's value is slightly less than ours in case that is needed. How often do we get gammoned from here? Our own gammon wins are pretty easy to estimate I think. Somewhere between 7-8% suits me fine. A reference position would be useful - does anyone know this one offhand?
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I've looked a good deal at this and similar positions. (like owning the bar instead of the 9pt, having the 9pt checkers go one each on the 8pt and midpoint, etc...) I'm going to WAG that when we're completely closed out we get gammoned 65% of the time. How often does that happen? Now I could start trying to deduce further but I think it'd be futile. At this point I'd make an educated guess and cross my fingers. Let's call it 30% and see what we get. So we cancel out 8% of the gammons and the other 22% add about 17% to our take point. This gives us a fully adjusted take point of 35%.
Do we win 35% of the time from here?
Hell if I know. These are the times I'm glad to be playing human opponents because this is always an easy pass then.
Stick