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Rollout: Many choices ... GNUBG says ...

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 15 October 2011, at 4:33 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Many choices = many opportunities to blunder (Timothy Chow)

Gnubg 2-ply also has 20/9 leading 7/1 6/1 in these rollouts, but only by 0.0035 EMG (20/9: -0.8190, 7/1 6/1: -0.8225):

The score is: White 5, Blue 4 (match to 7 points). White on roll after Blue has played 20/9

White	99
Blue	134
Position ID: bLsEDCHm7A4GAA Match ID: MAHgAFAAIAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7677	(Money: +0.6593)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.8190
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1810
3.	Double, take	+0.7939	-0.0251
Proper cube action:		No double, take (12.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7288 0.2462 0.0137 - 0.2712 0.0550 0.0031 +0.7677 +0.8190 Standard error 0.0011 0.0034 0.0016 - 0.0011 0.0012 0.0007 0.0041 0.0059 Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7249 0.3453 0.0170 - 0.2751 0.0656 0.0049 +1.5015 +0.7939 Standard error 0.0012 0.0064 0.0018 - 0.0012 0.0029 0.0008 0.0067 0.0095
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 934292295 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score is White 5, Blue 4 (match to 7 points). White on roll after Blue has played 7/1 6/1

White	99
Blue	134
Position ID: s20AhiHm7A4GAA Match ID: MAHgAFAAIAAE

Alert: missed double ( -0.0231)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6954	(Money: +0.6192)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8225
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1775
3.	No double	+0.7994	-0.0231
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7320 0.1992 0.0079 - 0.2680 0.0504 0.0014 +0.6954 +0.7994 Standard error 0.0010 0.0031 0.0012 - 0.0010 0.0014 0.0007 0.0034 0.0050 Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7285 0.3476 0.0119 - 0.2715 0.0719 0.0018 +1.5220 +0.8225 Standard error 0.0011 0.0064 0.0015 - 0.0011 0.0033 0.0005 0.0063 0.0090
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 934292295 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Rolled out with the XG2 MET.

Messages In This Thread

• Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 1:00 a.m.
  • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
    Mick Dyett -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 5:46 a.m.
  • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 6:06 a.m.
  • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 6:49 a.m.
  • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 1:45 p.m.
    • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 2:36 p.m.
      • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 3:11 p.m.
        • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
          Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 3:37 p.m.
        • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
          Stick -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 5:10 p.m.
  • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 7:35 p.m.
    • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
      Stick -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 7:50 p.m.
      • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 8:51 p.m.
        • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
          Stick -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 9:04 p.m.
          • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
            Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 10:14 p.m.
          • Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
            Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 10:17 p.m.
  • Rollout: Many choices = many opportunities to blunder
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 13 October 2011, at 11:51 p.m.
    • unlimted RO in progress
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 14 October 2011, at 1:35 a.m.
    • Rollout (unlimited score)
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 14 October 2011, at 4:10 p.m.
    • Rollout: Many choices ... GNUBG says ...
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 15 October 2011, at 4:33 a.m.
      • Rollout: Many choices ... GNUBG says ...
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 15 October 2011, at 6:09 p.m.