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Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 3:57 p.m.

In Response To: Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly (neilkaz)

Blue's a race favorite and contact shouldn't diminish those chances by much (because sometimes Blue can outwait White, and Blue's hits should mostly be winners, but that's not as true for White). Gammon chance is small.

White's take risks 18 to gain 50 -> gammonless takepoint 26%. Raw pipcount 87-90, a bit more wastage for White, and contact indicates Blue's GWC is in the low 60's.

So even gammonful, the take is clear and the only remaining question is whether Blue has sufficient market losing sequences to justify a double. What could Blue possibly roll that White's response gives Blue a double/pass? Only 66, 44 and 22 sometimes, and 64 followed by some misses?

Take, and I don't quite see a Double.

Messages In This Thread

• Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 4:37 a.m.
  • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 6:09 a.m.
  • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
    Udo Moerschbach -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 11:59 a.m.
  • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
    svilo -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 2:24 p.m.
    • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
      higonefive -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 2:38 p.m.
  • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 3:57 p.m.
  • OTB and RO and followup
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 4:31 p.m.
    • OTB and RO and followup
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 6:13 p.m.
      • OTB and RO and followup
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
    • Oops
      neilkaz -- Monday, 17 October 2011, at 12:35 a.m.
    • Practical flaw in my OTB thinking
      neilkaz -- Monday, 17 October 2011, at 3:59 p.m.
      • Practical flaw in my OTB thinking
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 18 October 2011, at 1:13 a.m.