[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OTB and RO and followup

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 4:31 p.m.

In Response To: Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly (neilkaz)

OTB I looked at what was happening and figured that I was 65% to win this game with the occ. G if I hit so I cubed. Apparently it just is volatile enough to make that proper.




White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 90
3 point match
pip: 87
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABBBBBA-Ab-b--B--a-abbcb-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.126% (G:3.680% B:0.130%) 65.153% (G:3.745% B:0.129%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.874% (G:0.408% B:0.007%) 34.847% (G:0.428% B:0.005%)
Cubeless Equities +0.3498 +0.6284
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6329±0.0026 (+0.6302..+0.6355)
Double/Take:+0.6284 (-0.0045)±0.0026 (+0.6258..+0.6309)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3671)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.2%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:99.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 01 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

If I waited a turn.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 83
3 point match
pip: 81
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB--Ab-b--B-----bcdb-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.272% (G:6.415% B:0.048%) 68.624% (G:6.232% B:0.055%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.728% (G:0.284% B:0.003%) 31.376% (G:0.222% B:0.002%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4518 +0.8799
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7232 (-0.1567)
Double/Take:+0.8799
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1201)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

If I waited a 2nd turn. This was the kind of big market loss I saw when I cubed initially. Off course I missed the shot and soon was hit and danced and lossed.




White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 76
3 point match
pip: 74
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB---b---aB-a---bcdb-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.761% (G:12.994% B:0.062%) 73.874% (G:13.013% B:0.072%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.239% (G:0.133% B:0.001%) 26.126% (G:0.115% B:0.001%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6580 +1.3380
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7711 (-0.2289)
Double/Take:+1.3380 (+0.3380)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.