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Rollout: Break the anchor or hold the fort?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 6:18 p.m.

In Response To: Break the anchor or hold the fort? (Timothy Chow)

There are competing rules of thumb operating here. Blue is ahead in the race and if he plays safe, he must bury a checker and likely let White seize the outfield. Those factors point to running. On the other hand, typically one should not volunteer a shot in a mutual holding game, especially when it involves leaving three blots around the board, one of them behind a four-prime that it might not be able to leap easily.

OTB I ran, but the rollout favors playing safe.

		White is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 107 7 point match pip: 98 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBAbCCB---------bbbcBb-b-:1:-1:1:61:5:5:0:7:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	7/6 7/1	eq: -0.228
	Player: Opponent: 38.62% (G:8.15% B:0.08%) 61.38% (G:12.64% B:0.39%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.232...-0.224) Duration: 38 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/14	eq: -0.257 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 37.17% (G:11.93% B:0.31%) 62.83% (G:18.53% B:0.39%) Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.262...-0.252) Duration: 36 minutes 14 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Break the anchor or hold the fort?
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 15 October 2011, at 6:15 p.m.
  • Break the anchor or hold the fort?
    Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 15 October 2011, at 7:54 p.m.
  • Rollout: Break the anchor or hold the fort?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 6:18 p.m.