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BGonline.org Forums
Practical flaw in my OTB thinking
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: OTB and RO and followup (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 17 October 2011, at 3:59 p.m.
There's a big practical flaw in my OTB thinking here. No, it isn't the fact that technically I made a .005 error vs a very strong opp. The flaw in my thinking was that I failed to give enough thought to what would often happen next roll. I did see that it was quite hard for me to lose my market this roll unless I pitched a useful set followed by small from Joe.
Look at the second position I posted here. As happened in the game I rolled 42 and closed the board and Joe rolled a 52 and had to waste more pips and lose his timing reserve. What would have happened if I cubed then? Just perhaps he could have passed the .88 take? Perhaps he still uses an old MET where -2-1C is less than what today's bots RO and that would make it easier for him to have found a pass? Anyhow...we'll never know what he'd have done here since I failed to wait to cube to give him the chance to err.
Lets say that my cube had rolled out to be technically correct by .005..well I still shouldn't have cubed this and should be looking ahead the one turn and then hoping for a bad pass from almost any human.
In all likelyhood, Joe'd have found the .88 take, and the same result would've happened... but ....
Players blunder less often when not given the chance to blunder.
.. neilkaz ..
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