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3 away 6 away cube

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 17 October 2011, at 10:56 p.m.

In Response To: 3 away 6 away cube (neilkaz)

This one is difficult but I'll give it a shot. The gammon value on a 2-cube is close to normal for White and reduced (about 1/3) for Blue. White's raw take point is about 27%, but that may be misleading because of White's powerful recube vig. Let's try MCG's recommendation of averaging the "perfect recube" takepoint (i.e., White's wins are all with the cube on 4 but all White's losses are with the cube on 2) and the "autorecube" takepoint (White redoubles immediately). The perfect recube takepoint is about 18% and the autorecube takepoint is about 33%, so averaging them gives us about 25.5%.

23 rolls cover Blue's blot. Of the remaining rolls, only 55 fails to lift Blue's blot, though several rolls give White some indirect shots from the bar. If Blue covers then White's situation is grim but not totally hopeless. Blue still has some work to do to close White out; if White enters, Blue may have a difficult decision about whether to hit loose, in view of White's strong board. And of course White can still win if she comes in and Blue gets hit trying to come around the board.

If Blue fails to cover then I think White's chances are decent. I think Blue will lift if he can, and White is a favorite to enter. It will not be so easy for Blue to make the 6pt. Suppose White wins 40% when Blue doesn't cover and suppose White wins 20% when Blue does cover. I get White winning 27% or 28%. Of course this ignores gammons, but as noted above, Blue's gammon value is reduced. Overall I think White can take.

Given that, should Blue double? Blue could still get gammoned here but he's more likely to win a gammon than to lose a gammon. He's very unlikely to get gammoned if he covers, and even if he doesn't cover, he should still be a favorite to win the game. I'd think that Blue loses less than 10% gammons.

OTB I would be unsure of my gammon estimates and would hold the cube here, following "Stick's rule," though I won't be too surprised if it's technically a double.

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