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Break this down for me

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 18 October 2011, at 12:28 a.m.

In Response To: Break this down for me (Michael Nielsen)

In short, the opp's live cube take point is close to that for money. There are 23/36 that hit and a couple missing numbers, notably 44 and 66, that leave you a good game also. If we assume every hit is a winner and you win 1.5 out of 2 games for the 44/66 combo that brings us to 25.5/36 games. Tack on another half game for 33 brings us up to 26/36. As for the rest of the rolls that suck you're not getting doubled out anywhere so you are clearly still in the game.

It can't be too good because of the immediate misses and how far you still are from winning a gammon. (it's far from a given to pick up both blots even if you hit one on the first turn) It can't be a take because the winning chances are quite high, at least 75%, and then there are a fair amount of gammons involved.

Stick

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