BGonline.org Forums

Practical flaw in my OTB thinking

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 18 October 2011, at 1:13 a.m.

In Response To: Practical flaw in my OTB thinking (neilkaz)

Look at the second position I posted here.

Just perhaps he could have passed the .88 take? Perhaps he still uses an old MET where -2-1C is less than what today's bots RO and that would make it easier for him to have found a pass?

Maybe so. With Gnubg 2-ply using the Woolsey-Heinrich MET, the take is marginal:

White 1, Blue 0, Match to 3, Blue on roll

White	83
Blue	81
Position ID: ezeAGQDbthEYAA Match ID: cAlgABAAAAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4120	(Money: +0.3917)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9876
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0124
3.	No double	+0.7636	-0.2240
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6722 0.0513 0.0013 - 0.3278 0.0054 0.0000 +0.4120 +0.7636 Standard error 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 - 0.0005 0.0008 0.0000 0.0013 0.0024 Player White owns 2-cube 0.6849 0.0635 0.0018 - 0.3151 0.0059 0.0000 +0.9876 +0.9876 Standard error 0.0006 0.0010 0.0006 - 0.0006 0.0012 0.0000 0.0042 0.0042
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 934631290 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 4:37 a.m.
  • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 6:09 a.m.
  • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
    Udo Moerschbach -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 11:59 a.m.
  • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
    svilo -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 2:24 p.m.
    • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
      higonefive -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 2:38 p.m.
  • Peoria SF cube... Kaz vs Sly
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 3:57 p.m.
  • OTB and RO and followup
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 4:31 p.m.
    • OTB and RO and followup
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 6:13 p.m.
      • OTB and RO and followup
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 16 October 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
    • Oops
      neilkaz -- Monday, 17 October 2011, at 12:35 a.m.
    • Practical flaw in my OTB thinking
      neilkaz -- Monday, 17 October 2011, at 3:59 p.m.
      • Practical flaw in my OTB thinking
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 18 October 2011, at 1:13 a.m.