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Postcard BG 10/18/11

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 19 October 2011, at 1:53 a.m.

In Response To: Postcard BG 10/18/11 (Jason Lee)

Some things to consider when looking at pay now v. pay later decisions in general.

  • How likely is it that if I don't pay now I don't have to pay at all?
    • Do I have a lot of timing left?

  • If we do decide to pay later are we likely to leave more or less shots than we could leave now?
    • How far away is the point I'm trying to clear.

  • From now until the time we may have to pay later, will our opponent's position (board) improve or deteriorate?
    • Does our opponent have a lot of timing left?

  • Does making the pay now play greatly improve our position when we get away with it?
    • Are we 'virtually gin' if not hit?

  • When in doubt, pay later

In your posted position if we pay now we'll be hit immediately 17/36 rolls however there is a lot of life for us after being hit since our opponent's board is only a 3pt board (though with the bar now currently slotted) and we would still maintain a decent sized racing lead.

When we pay now and aren't hit (19/36) the next go round we still won't get past our opp's midpoint with 16 rolls [11 22 33 66 21 31 41 51 32 42]. These are hard to classify because when our opp. rolls and misses often his non hitting rolls will play somewhat awkwardly either leaving us a direct shot or slotting his inner board points making his subsequent hits less powerful. It is certainly a big gain if we get away with paying now but it's far from gin as later game pay now v. pay later decisions from the midpoint against the 20pt anchor for example would be.

Our opp's position now has no landing spots in the outfield and it is likely he will either leave us a shot to keep flexible or slot inner board points. Either of these may afford us a better time to come off the anchor either in hitting or in running with the same type of roll [7s, 8s, 10s, 11s] while he's slotted.

We are running rather short on checkers we have to stall with. Also, since we're trying to clear from the 18pt to the 8pt all of our doubles are not as working as they would typically be when trying to clear the midpoint. Our small doublets of [11 22 33] still leave us stranded in the outfield while [66] is blocked. This points towards paying now.

As with a lot of these decisions there are factors pulling in both directions that make it tough. There are no hard and fast rules that will tell you which factors are most important in pay now v. pay later decisions or that if so many of the criteria are met you should pay now or later. You're left to weight these factors on your own.

I've studied these a lot because often the wrong play can be a big error. I'm finding this one particularly tough to decide which way to go. I have to pick a play though so I'm shooting with 18/8.

Stick

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