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Rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:12 p.m.

In Response To: Blitz in Madison (neilkaz)

I thought this was a close pass at the score but like several here, I over rated my chances. Howeverm cubing this highly volatile position is very clear and also negates the G's I lose. OTB I cubed< Sean took but wasn't sure and I danced a few times as he hopped instantly with 64 and never blotted in the bearoff,

The score (after 0 games) is: Bill 1, Neil 1 (match to 5 points)

Move number 5: Neil on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Bill 65, Neil 105
Position ID: 39kGACC2uwEiQA Match ID: UQmgABAACAAA

• Neil doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.2212	(Money: +0.2248)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8269
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1731
3.	No double	+0.5790	-0.2479
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Neil owns 2-cube 0.6226 0.0789 0.0031 - 0.3774 0.1003 0.0021 +0.2212 +0.5790 Standard error 0.0009 0.0018 0.0009 - 0.0009 0.0029 0.0008 0.0039 0.0038 Player Bill owns 4-cube 0.6421 0.0982 0.0049 - 0.3579 0.1587 0.0004 +0.8269 +0.8269 Standard error 0.0011 0.0052 0.0012 - 0.0011 0.0070 0.0002 0.0062 0.0062
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1072764372 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Blitz in Madison
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 2 September 2007, at 7:01 p.m.
  • Blitz in Madison
    Mislav Radica -- Sunday, 2 September 2007, at 8:53 p.m.
  • Blitz in Madison
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 12:33 a.m.
  • Blitz in Madison
    garyo -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:35 a.m.
    • Blitz in Madison
      Keene -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 7:26 a.m.
  • Blitz in Madison
    Caryl Stephanson -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:08 p.m.
  • Rollout
    neilkaz -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:12 p.m.
    • Rollout
      garyo -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:24 p.m.