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Reposted rollout: That ol' gammons-vs.-wins question again...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 23 October 2011, at 6:38 p.m.

In Response To: That ol' gammons-vs.-wins question again... (Timothy Chow)

I'm reposting this rollout since it disappeared during this site's downtime.

8/2* wins a lot more gammons and 18/13 5/4 wins a lot more games. I think it's quite difficult to estimate the tradeoff. The rollout puts 18/13 5/4 on top. This position actually arose at a score where Blue's gammon value was elevated enough to make 8/2* roll out best. I played 18/13 5/4 OTB and my PR suffered accordingly.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 130
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 103
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--aBBCC-B--Bd---abAb-cb---:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout118/13 5/4eq: +0.711
Player:
Opponent:		 78.85% (G:24.05% B:0.36%)
21.15% (G:2.60% B:0.11%)		Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.703...+0.719)
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout18/2* eq: +0.666 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		 70.43% (G:46.30% B:0.65%)
29.57% (G:8.81% B:0.51%)		Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.655...+0.677)
Duration: 57 minutes 57 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 3 moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube Decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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