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Rollout ATS and for money

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 24 October 2011, at 2:43 a.m.

In Response To: Backgame cube action, sort of (Timothy Chow)

I was playing White here against XG version 1, 3-ply. XG did not double here, sparing me a difficult decision. I can't say for sure what I would have done, but I would probably have dropped. White's situation looks pretty dismal here, with a straggler trapped behind a five-prime and not at the edge, and a crunching forward position. Indeed, for money this is a big drop. However, according to the rollout, White has a clear take ATS. I guess White wins more often here than I would have thought.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 93 7 point match pip: 142 score: 2 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-BBBBBA-------b-bcBcBca-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.25% (G: 18.69% B: 1.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.75% (G: 7.83% B: 0.33%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.26% (G: 17.24% B: 1.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.74% (G: 9.02% B: 0.97%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.686
Redouble:	+1.105
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.839 (-0.078)
Redouble/Take:	+0.917
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.083)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 3 moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and Cube Decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.009 (+0.829...+0.848)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.018 (+0.899...+0.934)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 46 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Money rollout:

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 93 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-BBBBBA-------b-bcBcBca-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	77.23% (G: 18.72% B: 0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.77% (G: 7.96% B: 0.19%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	78.64% (G: 19.49% B: 0.91%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.36% (G: 7.71% B: 0.19%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.658
Redouble:	+1.395
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.902 (-0.098)
Redouble/Take:	+1.264 (+0.264)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.010 (+0.892...+0.912)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.020 (+1.244...+1.284)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Backgame cube action, sort of
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 22 October 2011, at 7:16 p.m.
  • Rollout ATS and for money
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 24 October 2011, at 2:43 a.m.
    • Rollout ATS and for money
      Stick -- Monday, 24 October 2011, at 3:38 a.m.
      • Rollout ATS and for money
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 24 October 2011, at 2:45 p.m.
    • Rollout ATS and for money
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 October 2011, at 3:00 p.m.