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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 24 October 2011, at 11:50 p.m.

In Response To: Backgame cube action from Peoria (neilkaz)

Hmm..I expected more interest in this position but I guess it is too obvious to everyone to not cube this AtS.

After posting where John erred vs me, I just had to post this Whopper where I cubed since I estimated that I could win this game nearly 70% of the time (LOL off the mark by over 10% and losing a $25 bet to Phil as well)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 161
11 point match
pip: 66
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bDbEaE-A---a---a--b-abba-:0:0:1:00:6:2:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.418% (G:36.302% B:9.223%) 56.962% (G:36.379% B:10.753%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.582% (G:0.488% B:0.017%) 43.038% (G:0.490% B:0.019%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5911 +1.0603
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.5271±0.0175 (+0.5096..+0.5446)
Double/Take:+0.3792 (-0.1479)±0.0221 (+0.3572..+0.4013)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.4729)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67389374
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

As we see it is a trivial money take whereas I felt that it was at best a bare take for money. I thought the unless I rolled a bad ace I could play for a while w/out blotting unless White chanced breaking his 3 pt anchor to give me some bad 3's.

BK for me ....





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bDbEaE-A---a---a--b-abba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.201% (G:37.252% B:6.492%) 57.979% (G:36.256% B:6.709%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.799% (G:0.399% B:0.012%) 42.021% (G:0.474% B:0.019%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6173 +1.1686
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8405±0.0114 (+0.8292..+0.8519)
Double/Take:+0.7913 (-0.0492)±0.0195 (+0.7718..+0.8108)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1595)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67389374
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

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