[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Bearoff Cube Action

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 26 October 2011, at 4:26 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff Cube Action (John O'Hagan)

The EPCs to nearest .01 are actually 60.74 to 64.10 and the cubeless win chance of 71.0 % (to nearest .1%)

So the pipple count technique is close. I find it an underappreciated. The article can also be read at http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Dec00/pipples.htm I disagree with your last step though. You are using a rule intended for pip vs rolls positions. The trailer here does significantly better than that rule would indicate since we have a pip vs pip position. The variability in number of rolls to bear off is higher in a pips than a rolls position and that helps the trailer since he is the one who needs to be lucky to win. Contrast the given position with 3.36 EPC advantage and cubeless win % of 71.0 with the following which is obtained by giving white a position with higher EPC (now 61.29), but also making it more rollish which helps him being the leader. Despite losing 0.55 effective pips the cubeless win %age has increased by 0.6% to 71.6%





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 46
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DCBBBB------------ddbaa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.570% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 71.476% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.430% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 28.524% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4314 +0.8590
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6905
Double/Take:+0.6824 (-0.0081)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3095)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

In the next position the EPCS are extremly close (white is .04 better) to what they are in the orignal position. White though has cubelss win % of 72.9, almost a full 2% better. The difference btween pip vs pip positions and roll vs. pip positions is a difference worth accounting for.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 45
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DCBBCA------------ddbaa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.010% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 72.927% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.990% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 27.073% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4602 +0.9171
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7184 (-0.0260)
Double/Take:+0.7444
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.2556)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.