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Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 2:51 p.m.

In Response To: Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home (Keene)

Rolling three aces bears off (e.g., the first 21 can be played 2/off 2/1). Blue only has 5 checkers, not 6. So there is no extra equity there. The only way this differs from a 3-roll is that Blue doesn't have aces to save a roll, which adds about 0.8% to White's winning chances. At any rate I'm pretty convinced that White wins 22.7% (oddly enough, the exact number that Ray said). I think Snowie gets this wrong somewhere, but I have no idea why.

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