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Best answer: 31P-44I-C

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 29 October 2011, at 6:29 a.m.

In Response To: Best answer: 31P-44I-C (Nack Ballard)

I don't know what you mean by 21I, 43Z or 63Z followed by either 44I or 55I being candidates. Unless I've not understood something the equity after those sequences shouldn't be anywhere near what we have for these other rollouts according to XGR+. Here are some quickies.

41$-44I





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AD-CA--eD---c-a---dB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.356% (G:28.355% B:1.595%) 74.263% (G:28.038% B:1.638%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.644% (G:6.009% B:0.345%) 25.737% (G:5.789% B:0.265%)
Cubeless Equities +0.7231 +1.4430
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9526 (-0.0474)±0.0117 (+0.9409..+0.9643)
Double/Take:+1.2403 (+0.2403)±0.0327 (+1.2076..+1.2730)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
756 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 97329322
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 54 seconds


61N-44I





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---ADAC---eD---c-a---dB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.606% (G:28.222% B:1.626%) 74.712% (G:28.698% B:1.773%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.394% (G:5.770% B:0.295%) 25.288% (G:5.460% B:0.256%)
Cubeless Equities +0.7300 +1.4836
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9538 (-0.0462)±0.0067 (+0.9471..+0.9606)
Double/Take:+1.2942 (+0.2942)±0.0191 (+1.2751..+1.3133)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8936818
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 37 seconds


31E-55I or 31W-55I





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AD-C---eE---c-a-A--dA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.425% (G:25.987% B:1.067%) 75.753% (G:28.152% B:1.192%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.575% (G:5.389% B:0.125%) 24.247% (G:5.244% B:0.099%)
Cubeless Equities +0.7039 +1.5101
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9693 (-0.0307)±0.0102 (+0.9591..+0.9796)
Double/Take:+1.3192 (+0.3192)±0.0201 (+1.2991..+1.3393)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36812455
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 minutes 20 seconds

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