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43D-33C-61H-43Z-33 — Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 29 October 2011, at 7:56 p.m.

In Response To: 43D-33C-61H-43Z-33 (Taper_Mike)

Making the 5pt is wrong. It leaves too many blots. In addition, in order to make the 5pt, you must sacrifice the 8pt. This at a time when the 8pt does a better job blocking White's anchor than the 5pt does.

After that, the two obvious choices both include making the 10pt. It's a key block six points away from White's anchor. Any play that fails to make the 10pt, such as running the checker on the 17pt to relative safety on the 11pt, is inferior.

The final choice is whether to lift the blot on the 9pt or to run the rear checker to the 21pt. It's a close call. Were it not for the triple duplication of fives (Nack called this "triplification"), then the safe lifting play might be better. But in this position, you get to threaten White's blot on the 16pt, as well as start an advanced anchor (in case a second checker is sent back), with almost no additional risk.

For comparison, I tried to find a variation that did not have the triplification, but failed. Any shuffling of blots results in a materially different position.

As an exercise in the application of the new Nactation rules for doublets, I created the overblown Nactation key that follows the rollout.

Mike





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---ab-E-CAA-dC--aA-eb---A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33
1.Rollout124/21 13/10 6/3*(2) eq: +0.3200
Player:
Opponent:		58.41% (G:14.79% B:0.66%)
41.59% (G:11.93% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ±0.0041 (+0.3159...+0.3241) - [99.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 9/3* 6/3eq: +0.3117 (-0.0083)
Player:
Opponent:		58.05% (G:14.95% B:0.60%)
41.95% (G:11.41% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ±0.0039 (+0.3078...+0.3157) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout28/5(2) 6/3*(2) eq: +0.2673 (-0.0527)
Player:
Opponent:		56.50% (G:18.34% B:0.88%)
43.50% (G:13.60% B:0.98%)		Conf.: ±0.0080 (+0.2593...+0.2752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds
4.Rollout217/14 13/10 6/3*(2) eq: +0.2607 (-0.0593)
Player:
Opponent:		56.88% (G:14.91% B:0.71%)
43.12% (G:12.34% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ±0.0082 (+0.2525...+0.2689) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 23 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77175936
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77175936
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Nacbracs: [m I8 A53 M59] "<20*5

Nactation Key: 43D-33C-61H-43Z-33
NactationTraditional NotationNote
A (Attack) 8/5(2), 6/3*(2)
E (Each) 24/21, 17/14, 6/3*(2) Far: closest to 6pt
e (Each) 24/21, 21/18, 6/3*(2) Far: 2nd closest to 6pt
I (Inside) 13/10, 9/6, 6/3*(2) Down: most points; Jump: closest to 6pt
i (Inside) 13/10, 8/5, 6/3*(2) Down: most points; Jump: 2nd closest to 6pt
M (Mayfair split) 17/14, 13/10, 6/3*(2) Down: most points; Far: closest to 6pt
m (Mayfair split) 24/21, 13/10, 6/3*(2) Down: most points; Far: 2nd closest to 6pt
M (Mayfair split) 17/14, 14/11, 6/3*(2) Down: best non-point-making move; Far: closest to 6pt
N (Near) 13/10(2), 6/3*(2)
Q (Quirky split) 17/14, 9/6, 6/3*(2) Far: closest to 6pt; Jump: closest to 6pt
q (Quirky split) 24/21, 9/6, 6/3*(2) Far: 2nd closest to 6pt; Jump: closest to 6pt

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