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Best move and why?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 8 November 2011, at 5:41 a.m.

In Response To: Best move and why? (Timothy Chow)

4. The score means your opponent is itching to turn the cube

Your non gammon adjusted take point is ~22% at this score and your opponent's gammon value isn't that much higher than money on a 2 cube so is he really itching?

I think I would cube after 18/7.

Given the above info I think it would be a big mistake to cube after 18/7. Also, as you know, just because one play gets you cubed and the other play does not doesn't mean the latter play is wrong. In general it just increased the volatility.

While there are two inner board blots which typically points to paying now when you're far ahead in the race you are leaving a double shot. What may be just as important is the two blots are largely a mirage. Of the [66 65 64 63 62 61 54 44 43 42 41 51 31 33 22 11] 27 hitting numbers 17 of them hit and cover at least one blot. We could further break that down into what covers which blot as it's a much bigger swing covering the six point than the deuce and other numbers leave no blots at all but that's enough work.

Stick

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