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Rollout and thoughts

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Tuesday, 8 November 2011, at 5:03 p.m.

In Response To: Don't understand this cube problem (mtuhtan)

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 127 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=ab-B-CD-B-B-a----bccc-A-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 59,81% (G:27,77% B:3,53%) 59,77% (G:27,44% B:3,66%) Opponent Winning Chances: 40,19% (G:8,36% B:0,44%) 40,23% (G:8,51% B:0,44%) Cubeless Equities +0,421 +0,834 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,567 ±0,008 (+0,559..+0,575) Double/Take: +0,499 (-0,069) ±0,012 (+0,487..+0,511) Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,433) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12,0% Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 96302452 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 16 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

OTB I was sure this is a double, probably costing 0.050 - 0.100 if I don't double now.
What really shocked me is that I was about 0.150 off in my estimations.

As I already said - I played out the position, but even still, I wasn't convinced, so I decided to post this on three forums (DailyGammon, BgOnline, TwoPlusTwo) to see two things:
1. How other players feel about doubling this
2. Will I get some passes to make doubling practically correct

Here are combined results:
ND/T 6 votes
D/T 13 votes
D/P 1 vote

1. Most players doubled this. And I can't blame them/us. It still looks like a double to me.

2. Not enough passes to make doubling practically correct.

Messages In This Thread

• Don't understand this cube problem
  mtuhtan -- Sunday, 6 November 2011, at 12:33 p.m.
  • Don't understand this cube problem
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 6 November 2011, at 12:57 p.m.
  • Don't understand this cube problem
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 6 November 2011, at 10:29 p.m.
    • Don't understand this cube problem
      mtuhtan -- Monday, 7 November 2011, at 10:00 a.m.
    • Don't understand this cube problem
      wilcox -- Monday, 7 November 2011, at 12:37 p.m.
  • Don't understand this cube problem
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 7 November 2011, at 12:39 a.m.
  • Anyone else?
    mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 8 November 2011, at 12:05 p.m.
    • Anyone else?
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 8 November 2011, at 12:55 p.m.
    • Anyone else?
      Fabrice Liardet -- Tuesday, 8 November 2011, at 1:21 p.m.
  • Rollout and thoughts
    mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 8 November 2011, at 5:03 p.m.
    • Rollout and thoughts
      Turz -- Tuesday, 8 November 2011, at 5:19 p.m.
    • Rollout and thoughts
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 8 November 2011, at 11:17 p.m.