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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Re: And this my friend is how you poker
Posted By: DC-Ohio In Response To: Re: And this my friend is how you poker (Stick)
Date: Friday, 22 December 2006, at 6:31 p.m.
Just had to check... I've known some people who took shots at a much higher limit then their bankroll allows only to piss it all away in a -100BB swing.
You never KNOW if you are beat. Which is why you have to bring math into the equation at some point. (unfortunately I can't do a full analysis here since I have NO idea how you have played so far... do you raise every button? do you C-bet alot? what's your VP$IP? what's your PFR%?) Let's say I was holding 99 here. My play is exactly the same as your villain in this hand. I definitely can't 3-bet preflop, but I can raise the flop for information. When you don't 3-bet the flop, I take a big ace out of your range.
So I bet the turn, and you call. Now, you could be on a hand like a suited connector and are drawing to the flush or straight.
He checks the river... horrible play on his part... even if he is on a busted draw, the only way he can win the pot here is to bet. Don't forget he has the advantage of being BB on this hand which means his hand range is bigger than normal. He needs to represent the boat here. He's been representing a big hand the whole way, and a bet here may make a weak ace fold.
The problem with bluffing on the river in limit play is that it is just one more bet. I tend to stay away from limit for this reason... I can make alot more plays successfully in NL. Limit tends to be filled with calling stations.
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