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BGonline.org Forums
Have blots, will travel
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Have blots, will travel (Casper van der Tak)
Date: Thursday, 10 November 2011, at 6:25 p.m.
I think "don't move the checker on the 21" and "don't move both checkers on the 11 and 8 inside, because then the next 6 will need to be played from the 21" are correct, but between 8/2 6/1 and 11/5 6/1, I think 11/5 6/1 is better.
Let's look at White's numbers that hit after either play. I assume White will hit an ace or four shot if he can, but if he chooses not to hit, the play doesn't matter. Then
If White rolls 4-4, 2-2, 4-5, 4-6 or 2-2, Blue does not want to be hit, because on 4-4 there are no return shots, on 2-2 Blue gets 17 directs instead of 9 indirects, and on 4-5 and 4-6 Blue gets 15 directs instead of 11 or 9 from the bar. 11/5 6/1.If White rolls 4-2 or 4-3, does Blue want to get hit? I think not. On 4-2 and 4-3 Blue can get an indirect (6/36) shot, or have to enter and maybe get a single or double shot later, but lose more gammons. I think Blue should play not to get hit. 11/5 6/1 again.If White rolls 2-1, Blue should leave the four shot, to get a direct shot immediately. 8/2 6/1.If White rolls 6-1 or 6-1, Blue will have indirect 7's or 8's if not on the bar, so I think Blue should not want to be hit. 8/2 6/1.If White rolls 1-1, 3-1 or 4-1 the plays wash -- or do they? Perhaps 8/2 6/1 is a little better because slotting the 2 point is goo.
Rolls Best play 4-4 4-5 4-6 2-2 11/5 6/1 by a lot 4-2 4-3 11/5 6/1 2-1 8/2 6/1 by a lot 5-1 6-1 8/2 6/1 1-1 3-1 4-1 8/2 6/1 by a little? Of White's 21 rolls that might hit after either play, I'm counting 10 rolls favoring 11/5 6/1, 6 rolls favoring 8/2 6/1, and 5 rolls probably favoring 8/2 6/1 but only slightly. And on White's 15 rolls that don't hit after either play, bearing in with 11/5 should save a few more gammons than 8/2.
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