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Daily Quiz 11/8: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 12 November 2011, at 11:21 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 11/8 (Daily Quiz)

There was some discussion recently about whether posting XGR+ evals after a day would motivate more people to post their analysis. I'm not sure I'll be able to sustain this (it's more work for me than for most people to post XGR+ evals because my computer with XG on it is not connected to the Internet), but I'll give it a shot and see how it goes.

I should have recognized the theme here: in a mutual holding game where I have the more advanced anchor, it's typically very important to block the six-away point from my opponent's anchor if possible.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 150
1 point match
pip: 168
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----b-D-C--AcD---eBdaA----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 33

1.XG Roller+21/15 13/10(2)eq: +0.035
Player:
Opponent:		 51.77% (G:7.84% B:0.25%)
48.23% (G:10.94% B:0.32%)
2.XG Roller+21/18 13/10(3)eq: +0.029 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		 51.46% (G:8.70% B:0.28%)
48.54% (G:10.93% B:0.42%)
3.XG Roller+21/18 13/10(2) 6/3eq: +0.025 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		 51.25% (G:8.25% B:0.28%)
48.75% (G:10.54% B:0.35%)
4.XG Roller+18/15(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.025 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		 51.24% (G:6.74% B:0.24%)
48.76% (G:13.67% B:0.39%)
5.XG Roller+13/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.018 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		 50.92% (G:8.72% B:0.29%)
49.08% (G:12.77% B:0.41%)
6.XG Roller+21/18 13/10(2) 11/8eq: +0.015 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		 50.75% (G:7.28% B:0.21%)
49.25% (G:9.51% B:0.26%)
7.XG Roller+13/10(4)eq: +0.003 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		 50.17% (G:8.27% B:0.25%)
49.83% (G:11.69% B:0.38%)
8.XG Roller+21/18 13/10(2) 8/5eq: +0.003 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		 50.17% (G:9.33% B:0.34%)
49.83% (G:12.63% B:0.53%)
9.XG Roller+13/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: -0.001 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.93% (G:10.20% B:0.38%)
50.07% (G:13.88% B:0.65%)
10.XG Roller+13/10(2) 11/5eq: -0.006 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.72% (G:8.88% B:0.29%)
50.28% (G:13.44% B:0.50%)
11.XG Roller+13/10(2) 11/8 6/3eq: -0.016 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.18% (G:8.58% B:0.30%)
50.82% (G:12.84% B:0.42%)
12.XG Roller+21/15 18/15(2)eq: -0.024 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		 48.78% (G:4.65% B:0.13%)
51.22% (G:8.21% B:0.15%)
13.XG Roller+13/10(2) 8/5 6/3eq: -0.027 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		 48.65% (G:10.02% B:0.39%)
51.35% (G:16.31% B:0.86%)
14.XG Roller+13/7(2)eq: -0.030 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		 48.52% (G:7.63% B:0.23%)
51.48% (G:11.57% B:0.35%)
15.XG Roller+13/10 11/5 8/5eq: -0.034 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		 48.32% (G:9.51% B:0.36%)
51.68% (G:13.13% B:0.47%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

It seems that White is in more trouble here than I thought.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 55
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---BBCB-a---AA-----bC-gAe-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 72.40% (G: 16.48% B: 0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.60% (G: 14.48% B: 0.14%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.448
Double:+0.978
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.667 (-0.172)
Double/Take:+0.839
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.161)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 163
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 74
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-AbDbCCD--a------bbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 55.97% (G: 32.32% B: 1.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.03% (G: 5.90% B: 0.18%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.119
Double:+0.772
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.504
Double/Take:+0.487 (-0.017)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.496)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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