How should 62 be played? Let's see. We know that after our opponent made his 4pt with 42 on his opening roll it is correct to split. Here is RO for reference:
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| XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 62 | |||||
| 1. | Book1 | 24/18 13/11 | eq: -0.3125 | |||
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| 2. | Book1 | 24/16 | eq: -0.3370 (-0.0245) | |||
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| 3. | Book2 | 13/5 | eq: -0.3466 (-0.0341) | |||
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| 1 Generated by Ken Bame on 6/10/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.14 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 10842456 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
Running is worse by 0.024. He will be 2 pips ahead after the roll. This means he will be behind in the race if you take into account that it will be his opponent's roll. In the reference position running fails to develop his midpoint. In your position you already unstacked your midpoint on the first roll. This argues for running since you are more ahead in the race and your midpoint has only 4 checkers. Another important difference is how you will be playing sixes from the bar. After 42P-62S if you are hit on the bar point, you will often hit him back with your sixes. Your sixes are worse after 51S-42P-62S if you are hit with sixes. Running should be clear in your position.