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8-cube action from CNB Rome Main Champion Semifinal

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 15 November 2011, at 12:53 a.m.

In Response To: 8-cube action from CNB Rome Main Champion Semifinal (Carlo Melzi)

Here's a borderline pass for money:

Blue on roll

White41

4X3X2X ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

2O2O2O3O3O3O ' ' ' ' ' '
Blue57
Position ID: 7wYAANp2dwAAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE

Blue wins 78.27% cubeless.

Score Cube Double/Take Equity (EMG)Double/Take (ME)Double/Pass (ME)
Money game double to 2 +1.007
13-away 13-awaydouble to 2 +1.018 54.5% 54.4%
13-away 13-awayredouble to 4 +1.023 59.1% 58.9%
13-away 13-awayredouble to 8 +1.036 68.9% 68.2%
11-away 13-awaydouble to 2 +1.014 63.7% 63.6%
11-away 13-awayredouble to 4 +0.959 67.8% 68.2%
11-away 13-awayredouble to 8 +0.849 (ND = 0.858) 74.6% (ND = 73.8%)77.4%

Which are takes? Only the last two. I'm sure of that.

Which are doubles? All except possibly the last. The -11,-13 redouble to 8 rolls out to a "no double" but because Gnubg 2-ply underestimates cubeless equity by 1.6%, the ND equity may be inflated by bad takes later. If that inflation is more than 0.009, the position is a redouble.

Results are from Gnubg 2-ply rollouts, 2592 trials each. Gnubg 2-ply evalutation underestimates cubeless GWC by 1.6% and is wrong on the first five cube decisions. It's right on the -11,-13 redouble to 4. On the -11,-13 redouble to 8, the evaluation and rollout agree.

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