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My answer

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Tuesday, 15 November 2011, at 1:54 p.m.

In Response To: OT: Zeus question for Chuck (Gregg Cattanach)

Here is a simplistic way of looking at it: (1) each team had 11 possessions in regulation and scored 5 times; (2) If Atlanta converts their field position will be better than the average starting field position during the game, likewise for New Orleans if Atlanta punts; (3) I would use a 50% scoring success rate for Atlanta, if they convert-the field position is better than average and they can go for fourth and short in many situations; (5) I would use the same 50% rate for the Saints if Atlanta punts.

This oversimplified math, makes Atlanta a 2-1 favorite if they go for it and make it and a 2-1 dog if they punt. If they go for it and miss, they are probably a 95% dog. They gain 33.33% by converting the firstdown and lose 28.33% by failing. If this math is reasonable, they would need to be successful 28.33/61.66 or 46% of the time. I think they must have been at least 70% to make it, maybe higher. If they were 70% to convert, the gain would be about 14% improved winning chances in going for it.

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