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Daily Quiz 11/13: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 18 November 2011, at 3:32 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 11/13 (Daily Quiz)

I decided to do a truncated rollout of the top two plays in the first position because XGR+ had 24/17 ahead by more than 0.06, which I didn't quite believe.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaCCBB-B---A-----bcccb-B-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout124/17eq: -0.131
Player:
Opponent:
42.69% (G:12.15% B:0.66%)
57.31% (G:24.66% B:1.46%)
Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.141...-0.121)
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout18/2* 3/2eq: -0.148 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
38.10% (G:11.78% B:0.70%)
61.90% (G:15.32% B:0.85%)
Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.158...-0.138)
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
3.XG Roller+12/6 3/2* eq: -0.346 (-0.215)
Player:
Opponent:
33.44% (G:9.78% B:0.67%)
66.56% (G:20.93% B:1.61%)
4.XG Roller+24/23 8/2* eq: -0.447 (-0.316)
Player:
Opponent:
35.56% (G:10.54% B:0.59%)
64.44% (G:31.83% B:5.94%)
5.XG Roller+8/2* 2/1* eq: -0.511 (-0.380)
Player:
Opponent:
28.66% (G:8.24% B:0.33%)
71.34% (G:23.87% B:2.30%)
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21


This one might be a good candidate for the DQR if some good variants can be constructed.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aaBaCCB--AdB--Ab-db--A--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.XG Roller+16/5* eq: +0.163
Player:
Opponent:
59.94% (G:20.31% B:1.15%)
40.06% (G:10.23% B:0.48%)
2.XG Roller+11/5* 7/2* eq: +0.144 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
58.37% (G:23.57% B:1.31%)
41.63% (G:11.75% B:0.68%)
3.XG Roller+8/2* 7/2eq: +0.105 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
56.34% (G:25.40% B:1.30%)
43.66% (G:12.22% B:0.71%)
4.XG Roller+16/11 7/1eq: +0.079 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
58.08% (G:16.50% B:0.66%)
41.92% (G:10.34% B:0.36%)
5.XG Roller+11/5* 8/3* eq: +0.069 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
56.34% (G:24.22% B:1.52%)
43.66% (G:14.10% B:1.13%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---b--EBB---cD---e-e----B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.XG Roller+13/8 6/5eq: +0.023
Player:
Opponent:
51.39% (G:13.33% B:0.51%)
48.61% (G:13.49% B:0.73%)
2.XG Roller+24/23 13/8eq: -0.015 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
50.37% (G:12.30% B:0.43%)
49.63% (G:12.94% B:0.49%)
3.XG Roller+24/18eq: -0.030 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
50.53% (G:10.64% B:0.40%)
49.47% (G:12.81% B:0.44%)
4.XG Roller+13/7eq: -0.044 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
49.59% (G:12.52% B:0.45%)
50.41% (G:13.47% B:0.61%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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