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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 23 December 2006, at 1:57 a.m.

In Response To: Problem taken from Gammonlife Article (Stick)

Prime looks nice but you can't have that last checker just leaping out and into a lost race for you. (esp. when you still have two men back ready to be primed) Hitting is a must, buy yourself some time to split those back men or continue to pound on the little lost checker. If you want any more explanation, read Mary's article!

Mary's Article

Money Game
136
150
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 6/5(2) 4/3*(2) 0.078
0.5% 17.2% 50.3% 49.7% 11.2% 0.6%
Live cube rollout: 0.051
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.066 ±0.019, - live cube: 0.051 ±0.035. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 19122 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 24/23 8/7 6/5(2) 0.015 (-0.062)
0.5% 14.5% 49.7% 50.3% 11.9% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: -0.017
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.021 ±0.018, - live cube: -0.017 ±0.040. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 19908 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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