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BGonline.org Forums
Underdog double?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Underdog double? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Sunday, 20 November 2011, at 5:10 p.m.
1. Trailing 6-away 3-away, it'd be a shame to have a good sequence and then collect only one point in a gammonish position.
2. Although Blue appears to be a money game underdog -- White has the better board, Blue has two other blots, and Blue will fan 44% of the time -- how many good numbers does Blue actually have? About half! Any 4, also 3-1, 1-1, 1-5 and 1-6. Some of these numbers are excellent, particularly 4-4, 1-1, 4-3, 4-6, 4-5 and 1-3. Looking to White's returns, many of Blue's rolls must be gammonish market losers, since White would fan more than 1/4 of the time (sometimes Blue makes a 4 point board (5 point board with 4-4).
3. What happens if Blue rolls his worst and fans, which will happen 16/36 of the time on White's 4 point board? Should White double? If he doubled, would Blue have a take? If you look at Blue's decision, it should become clear that Blue should take a double.
So ... we have a gammonish position, plenty of market losing sequences, about half our rolls are good or excellent (although of course White will often hit back or anchor), and if we roll our worst, we get a 2-cube (maybe) instead of giving one to White now.
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