Two up is the bot play. I haven't analyzed this very thoroughly, but I think that the huge swing on 55 is a significant factor favoring 24/23 over 11/10. See variant 1 below for example.
My original theory, that 24/23 duplicates 4's and 6's because of the arrangement of White's outfield blots, doesn't seem so plausible to me any more, because shifting those blots a pip doesn't seem to change the balance between 24/23 and 11/10 much. See variants 2 and 3 below.
Note that these are truncated rollouts (the rough equivalent of XGR++).
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 152 | | 11 point match | pip: 150
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bBBC-B--AbCa-ad-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/20 | eq: +0.331 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.91% (G:13.50% B:0.63%)
41.09% (G:10.82% B:0.47%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.324...+0.338)
Duration: 8 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 11/10 | eq: +0.314 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.00% (G:14.88% B:0.71%)
42.00% (G:11.21% B:0.45%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.306...+0.322)
Duration: 8 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/20 6/5 | eq: +0.308 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.91% (G:14.88% B:0.72%)
42.09% (G:11.50% B:0.47%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.300...+0.316)
Duration: 7 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/23 11/7 | eq: +0.303 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.07% (G:14.29% B:0.64%)
41.93% (G:11.15% B:0.47%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.295...+0.311)
Duration: 7 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| |
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
DicFirst 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Variant 1:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 152 | | 11 point match | pip: 148
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bBBCB---AbCa-ad-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/20 11/10 | eq: +0.337 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.75% (G:14.17% B:0.64%)
41.25% (G:10.32% B:0.40%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.330...+0.344)
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 6/5 | eq: +0.332 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.58% (G:14.36% B:0.64%)
41.42% (G:10.48% B:0.39%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.325...+0.339)
Duration: 6 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/20 | eq: +0.316 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.57% (G:13.37% B:0.57%)
41.43% (G:10.29% B:0.40%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.308...+0.324)
Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| |
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Variant 2:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | | 11 point match | pip: 150
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bBBC-B--AbCaa-d-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/20 | eq: +0.306 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.28% (G:13.66% B:0.60%)
41.72% (G:10.81% B:0.45%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.298...+0.314)
Duration: 15 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 11/10 | eq: +0.280 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.56% (G:13.66% B:0.59%)
42.44% (G:11.19% B:0.45%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.272...+0.288)
Duration: 13 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/20 6/5 | eq: +0.273 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.44% (G:13.70% B:0.59%)
42.56% (G:11.40% B:0.47%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.265...+0.281)
Duration: 15 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/9 | eq: +0.272 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.58% (G:14.32% B:0.69%)
42.42% (G:12.35% B:0.68%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.263...+0.281)
Duration: 15 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/23 11/7 | eq: +0.246 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.66% (G:14.17% B:0.63%)
43.34% (G:11.45% B:0.50%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.238...+0.254)
Duration: 14 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| |
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Variant 3:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | | 11 point match | pip: 150
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bBBC-B--AbC-aad-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/20 | eq: +0.313 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.36% (G:13.68% B:0.62%)
41.64% (G:11.02% B:0.46%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.305...+0.321)
Duration: 17 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 11/10 | eq: +0.296 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.95% (G:13.51% B:0.60%)
42.05% (G:11.08% B:0.46%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.288...+0.304)
Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/20 6/5 | eq: +0.292 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.86% (G:13.43% B:0.60%)
42.14% (G:11.32% B:0.48%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.284...+0.300)
Duration: 15 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/23 11/7 | eq: +0.264 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.15% (G:14.26% B:0.66%)
42.85% (G:11.61% B:0.50%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.256...+0.272)
Duration: 13 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/9 | eq: +0.233 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.52% (G:15.60% B:0.79%)
43.48% (G:13.28% B:0.79%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.224...+0.242)
Duration: 16 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| |
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross