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Rollout: Underdog double?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 21 November 2011, at 3:41 p.m.

In Response To: Underdog double? (Timothy Chow)

I was playing XG here and eventually decided to hold the cube. It seemed to me that even if I were to roll a 4, White would typically have a ton of return shots and I could get gammoned for the match. This is true as far as it goes, but sending the cube over diminishes White's gammon value. However, it still seems very difficult to me to learn how to assess these kinds of positions OTB.





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 108
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BAaaCCaB---AB-----cbacc-A:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 46.85% (G: 21.24% B: 2.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 53.15% (G: 30.94% B: 2.06%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 47.06% (G: 22.19% B: 2.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.94% (G: 30.94% B: 3.32%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:-0.217
Double:-0.036
Cubeful Equities
No Double:-0.131 (-0.064)
Double/Take:-0.067
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+1.067)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.022 (-0.153...-0.108)
Confidence Double: ± 0.025 (-0.092...-0.042)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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