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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 11/17
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 11/17 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 1:10 a.m.
1. There are a lot of choices here. There's the outfield hit 24/17*, and the double hits 8/2*/1* or 8/2* 6/5*. There's also the non-hitting 13/7 8/7. The double hits seem to leave us with a structureless mess that we'll regret if the blitz doesn't work out, and our blitzing potential doesn't look that great anyway. Between 24/17* and 13/7 8/7, I'm not sure. White's 4's are duplicated for hitting and making her anchor, so our 9pt blot is not too serious a liability I think. 13/7 8/7 builds some structure and consolidates our position, but 24/17* gains a lot of pips in the race and takes away half of White's roll. At first I liked 13/7 8/7 but as I think about it more I'm liking 24/17* more.
2. If White had a "standard" 5pt-holding game then Blue's winning percentage would probably be in the low 70's, with low gammons. With a large race deficit, White's racing chances are poor, and she has to hope to hit a shot. Blue has the bar point (a plus for Blue) and a couple of blots to clean up (a minus for Blue) but White is on the bar. Normally, the 5pt anchor ensures low gammon losses, but White being on the bar means that there is some gammon risk. It doesn't take too many gammons to turn a holding game into a pass. D/P is my assessment.
3. It looks to me that we have enough of a race lead to not need to pay now even though it will cost us some pips in the race. We can either clear the 8pt or kill two checkers with 6/1 5/1. If we could make a point by clearing the 8pt then I'd consider it, but here I'd play 6/1 5/1.
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