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2-1 backgame continuation - now what?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: 2-1 backgame continuation - now what? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 23 November 2011, at 4:12 a.m.
I'm doing a bit of inferring from your post so correct me if I go astray. For money it sounds like you think the take/pass decision may be close. If that's the case we can make an assumption on what you think the win/gammon breakdowns are. Since the only player that can win a gammon is the top player/player being cubed and we can estimate he slimes his way to 5-7% gammons that would move our money take point down to about 18.5%. If you think it's a close take I'm going to say you put the taking player's win percentage at 19%.
So AtS what's the take point?
- Double/Pass for 11 away 6 away or 25% ME
- Double/Take/Lose for 11 away 4 away or 15% ME
- Double/Take/Win for 7 away 8 away or 55% ME
He'll be risking 10% to gain 30% or getting 3-1 odds on his take for a perfect dead cube take point of 25%. His gammons on a 4 cube will be worth slightly more than money though if the cube gets to 8 they'll be worth slightly less. I'm going to ignore those factors and adjust the gammons just as I would for money bringing his cube adjusted take point down to about 22%.
I'll spare you the math but our opp's 8 cube take point is around 31% so our cube leverage is more than normal owning a 4 cube. For money we generally get ~3% out of it so let's say maybe 4ish percent for cube ownership? That should bring our fully adjusted take point from 22% down to the 17-18% ballpark.
Assuming everything I said is true that you estimate originally an 81%/19% split in wins and a fully adjusted live cube take point of 17-18% it would seem like even according to score you must double this.
FWIW I think this is a clear money pass, it's too hard to win. AtS I'm still letting it go but it should be close one way or another.
Stick
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