On the left is a standard third roll position. As I recall from old Snowie rollouts, P (Point, 8/4 6/4) and X (hit-and-split, 13/9* 23/21) are tied, with P having a slight edge. (At the time, experts to whom I showed the position all thought X and x were clearly better than P.)
Tim's position is on the right. There are differences (e.g., hit is in the other outer board, Blue is under the gun, White has extra back checker) that overall would lean me towards hit (and lift), except that 4s and 1s are efficiently duplicated. I'd therefore go with P, though without any real conviction.
Below are two fifth-roll variants of Tim's position (above right). Below left, the 10pt blot is back on the midpoint. Below right, instead the fourth 8pt checker is back on the midpoint. What is the best play in each position? If there is interest, I'll roll them out.
