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BGonline.org Forums
Two out of three
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Two out of three (Fabrice Liardet)
Date: Thursday, 24 November 2011, at 10:50 a.m.
I'm a little confused about your wording but the play here should be crystal clear. Playing 3/off 2/1 should dominate both categories that matter, wins/gammon wins. The bg wins are negligible the gammon wins certainly aren't and by peeling 1/off here you lose way too many gammons that you would have otherwise won when you get hit. (and you go immediately from a 3pt board to a 2pt board)
Perhaps you weren't concerned with the best play here and are using it as an exercise in estimating those factors. After the best play you lose never, after the other plays you'd still be hard pressed to ever lose, maybe 1% of the time, so the win breakdown should be 100%/99%/99%. Backgammons for any play can be ignored as I think they're pretty much a wash. It's harder to estimate the exact gammon breakdown so if that's what you're doing maybe I'll wait til after Thanksgiving to attempt that.
Stick
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