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Daily Quiz 11/19: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 25 November 2011, at 7:16 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 11/19 (Daily Quiz)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 80 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 90 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABBBBCA----c-----Bcaabcb-:0:0:1:36:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 36

1.	XG Roller+	18/9	eq: -0.232
	Player: Opponent: 42.80% (G:3.05% B:0.09%) 57.20% (G:1.18% B:0.02%)
2.	XG Roller+	7/1 6/3	eq: -0.298 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 40.34% (G:1.43% B:0.05%) 59.66% (G:0.84% B:0.01%)
3.	XG Roller+	7/1 5/2	eq: -0.344 (-0.112)
	Player: Opponent: 38.75% (G:1.41% B:0.04%) 61.25% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
4.	XG Roller+	18/15 7/1	eq: -0.356 (-0.124)
	Player: Opponent: 38.51% (G:4.71% B:0.10%) 61.49% (G:6.91% B:0.10%)
5.	XG Roller+	7/1 4/1	eq: -0.360 (-0.129)
	Player: Opponent: 38.17% (G:1.35% B:0.04%) 61.83% (G:1.08% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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This position looked complicated enough that I decided to do a truncated rollout.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 171 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 168 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBaB--C-a-A-dB-A-c-eA--AB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	58.05% (G: 27.76% B: 1.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.95% (G: 10.77% B: 0.71%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.23% (G: 28.06% B: 1.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.77% (G: 10.56% B: 0.69%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.161
Double:	+0.690
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.483
Double/Take:	+0.400 (-0.083)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.517)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.009 (+0.473...+0.492)
Confidence Double:	± 0.012 (+0.387...+0.412)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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I overlooked 10/4 6/4 but wouldn't have played it anyway.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 171 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 168 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBaB--C-a-A-dB-A-c-eA--AB-:1:-1:1:26:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 26

1.	Rollout1	15/9 10/8*	eq: +0.175
	Player: Opponent: 57.86% (G:26.56% B:1.45%) 42.14% (G:10.79% B:0.65%) Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.169...+0.181) Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/4 6/4	eq: +0.169 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 57.49% (G:26.24% B:1.33%) 42.51% (G:10.28% B:0.55%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.162...+0.176) Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/7 10/8*	eq: +0.130 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 56.52% (G:26.62% B:1.46%) 43.48% (G:11.80% B:0.79%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.123...+0.137) Duration: 3 minutes 20 seconds
4.	Rollout1	10/8* 8/2*	eq: +0.124 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 56.14% (G:26.80% B:1.42%) 43.86% (G:11.99% B:0.71%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.117...+0.131) Duration: 3 minutes 24 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply. 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 11/19
  Daily Quiz -- Wednesday, 23 November 2011, at 12:07 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/19
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 23 November 2011, at 2:11 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/19
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 24 November 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/19: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 25 November 2011, at 7:16 p.m.