Even with a closed board, and perfect distribution of spares, the chance of winning a gammon against one checker on the bar in this position is somewhere in the low single digits, say 2%-4%. How much risk should we take to get that gammon? After 10/5 6/off, there are 3 rolls (33 34) that close the board. In addition, 3 rolls (11 22 44) make the 2pt safely, but only after breaking a higher point. No roll will force us to leave a blot. The other way to bear off a checker is 10/4 5/off. It leaves 4 ways (22 24 44) to close the board, plus 2 more ways (11 33) to make the 2pt safely after breaking a higher point. No roll forces exposure on the following turn. This may seem like a better alternative for the short term, but in the long run, the overstacked 6pt could be hard to clear safely. If we pass up the chance to bear off, then diversification is the order of the day. After 10/4 6/1, there are 7 rolls (22 23 24 34) that close the board. An additional 3 rolls (11 33 44) make the 2pt safely, but only after breaking a higher point. Once again, nothing could force a blot next time. Let's be patient, and not try too hard to win what may be an ephemeral gammon. My vote: 10/4, 6/1 Mike | ||||||||||||
