After reading Chuck's response, I looked again at the position and imagined how the next couple of rolls would play out. It then became pretty clear to me that it was an easy take. The point is that White will often have time to anchor on the 4pt and get right back in the game. If Blue had his 4pt rather than his 1pt then it would be a different story, because White would still be in big trouble after anchoring.
These are truncated rollouts. For some reason, XG doesn't seem to report the truncation level in the display below.
           
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 141 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 169
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aB-B-BC--a-aa-a--bbdBbAAB-:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout |
| No Double |
| Player Winning Chances: | 57.46% (G: 35.50% B: 5.62%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 42.54% (G: 13.06% B: 0.92%) |
| Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 57.83% (G: 35.81% B: 6.07%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 42.17% (G: 12.82% B: 0.93%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Redouble: | +0.421 |
| Redouble: | +0.876 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Redouble: | +0.628 |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.571 (-0.057) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.372) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take |
| |
| Rollout details |
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply |
| |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.011 (+0.617...+0.639) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.020 (+0.551...+0.591) |
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| |
| Duration: 2 minutes 22 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 141 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 175
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a--BBBC--a-aa-a--bbdBbAAB-:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout |
| No Double |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.88% (G: 39.50% B: 7.37%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.12% (G: 9.74% B: 0.67%) |
| Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.46% (G: 39.76% B: 7.67%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.54% (G: 9.52% B: 0.69%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Redouble: | +0.682 |
| Redouble: | +1.403 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Redouble: | +0.853 (-0.147) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.167 (+0.167) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop |
| |
| Rollout details |
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply |
| |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.008 (+0.845...+0.861) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.018 (+1.150...+1.185) |
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| |
| Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Slightly surprised that XGR+ doesn't double here, but I guess Black has several immediate bad rolls (64 61 55 44) and if Black clears his 8pt then White is not likely to crunch.
      
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 132 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 76
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AbDBbCCB----------cbbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller+ |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.25% (G: 13.20% B: 0.32%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.75% (G: 3.60% B: 0.09%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.325 |
| Double: | +0.833 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.688 |
| Double/Take: | +0.642 (-0.046) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.312) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No Double / Take |
| |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
This one might be a good DQR candidate.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 140 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 140
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a--E-CB--bD--Abccab----:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 16/9 | eq: +0.461 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.93% (G:5.88% B:0.15%)
36.07% (G:3.49% B:0.05%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 16/11 13/11 | eq: +0.432 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.80% (G:7.84% B:0.21%)
37.20% (G:5.80% B:0.13%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 16/11 8/6 | eq: +0.153 (-0.308) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.25% (G:7.81% B:0.23%)
44.75% (G:10.30% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 16/14 13/8 | eq: +0.029 (-0.432) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.82% (G:7.16% B:0.30%)
47.18% (G:11.56% B:0.27%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 8/3* 3/1* | eq: -0.045 (-0.507) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.41% (G:10.36% B:0.38%)
49.59% (G:14.72% B:0.45%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 13/6 | eq: -0.102 (-0.563) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.69% (G:8.04% B:0.36%)
51.31% (G:14.52% B:0.39%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller+ | 16/14 6/1* | eq: -0.120 (-0.581) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.14% (G:8.27% B:0.35%)
50.86% (G:15.54% B:0.45%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller+ | 13/11 13/8 | eq: -0.134 (-0.595) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.86% (G:8.74% B:0.42%)
52.14% (G:17.56% B:0.57%) | |
|
| 9. | XG Roller+ | 16/14 8/3* | eq: -0.201 (-0.662) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.97% (G:8.66% B:0.37%)
53.03% (G:17.54% B:0.60%) | |
|
| 10. | XG Roller+ | 13/11 6/1* | eq: -0.217 (-0.678) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.62% (G:9.16% B:0.44%)
53.38% (G:19.52% B:0.82%) | |
|
| 11. | XG Roller+ | 9/4 6/4 | eq: -0.222 (-0.684) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.48% (G:9.81% B:0.62%)
54.52% (G:19.71% B:0.63%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21