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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 11/23
Posted By: Casper van der Tak In Response To: Daily Quiz 11/23 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 9:28 a.m.
Let's give it a try.
1. OTB I am sure I would just play on. However, Ken made me realize that your gammon wins from here are not very numerous. If you escape and bring the checkers to the 6, 5 and 4 point, you'd have about 20% gammon wins, but even assuming you'd escape all you don't need to do so well, let's say 19% gammon rate in the complete escape cases. How often will you continue to play on? Only if you toss an immediate 4 or 3 to start with (close either way after a 33). So let's say you will get 12% gammons by playing on, cancelling later cashes after an initial 3 or 4 against gammons won after a start with anything but a 3 or 4, and giving 2% more as a bonus because the last assumption seems too pessimistic.
How often do you lose from here? Hard to say because it depends a lot on the number of pips on the first roll, but let's say 30% of the non-escaping rolls (taking the cube vig into account). That would be around 13%. If these numbers are right, playing on is actually a sizable error, costing over 0.1 in equity. OTB TG, after analysis D/P.
2. I don't see a need to leave hittable blot(s) against a stronger board, and the number of shots is considerable after both 10/6 and 8/4*. Owning the cube and with two anchors I have the time to improve slowly. B/20 5/1 (OTB and here as well).
3. Double and drop. White needs to do too much work to win this too take, but playing on is dangerous against a 4 point board and with lots of hittable checkers around, also considering the score. And the gammon is not very likely, so cash. This is also what I'd do OTB.
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