Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, XG2 ++

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Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, XG2 ++

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 11:31 a.m.

In Response To: Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament (Paul Weaver)

Position 1.

White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 144

13 point match

pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 2

XGID=-a-BBaC-C---cC-b-abcb---AA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.92% (G:18.35% B:0.76%) 63.97% (G:18.74% B:0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.08% (G:9.98% B:0.39%) 36.03% (G:10.08% B:0.41%)
Cubeless Equities +0.368 +0.756
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.573
Double/Take: +0.495 (-0.078)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.427)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 2. Not only did I screw up this cube decision, but I also made a whopper/cheese with my 41 in the position.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 97

13 point match

pip: 60
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aBEDB-a----A-----A-ccbbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.94% (G:7.77% B:0.05%) 73.95% (G:7.77% B:0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.06% (G:2.49% B:0.07%) 26.05% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities +0.534 +1.080
Cubeful Equities
No redouble: +0.751 (-0.227)
Redouble/Take: +0.978
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.022)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 97

13 point match

pip: 60
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aBEDB-a----A-----A-ccbbc--:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 41

1. XG Roller++ 17/13 2/1 eq: +0.775
Player:
Opponent: 71.84% (G:5.02% B:0.03%)
28.16% (G:4.01% B:0.12%)
2. XG Roller++ 17/13 3/2 eq: +0.766 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent: 71.36% (G:4.72% B:0.02%)
28.64% (G:4.04% B:0.12%)
3. XG Roller++ 17/12 eq: +0.618 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent: 69.37% (G:7.35% B:0.05%)
30.63% (G:4.70% B:0.15%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 3.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 90

13 point match

pip: 55
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-BEDBaa----AA------bccbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.15% (G:7.05% B:0.05%) 78.48% (G:7.06% B:0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.85% (G:2.46% B:0.07%) 21.52% (G:2.48% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities +0.611 +1.253
Cubeful Equities
No redouble: +0.805 (-0.195)
Redouble/Take: +1.169 (+0.169)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 4. Once again, I screwed up both the cube decision and the checker play.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124

13 point match

pip: 117
score: 2

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--BCCBC---bA-b-babbb--aA:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.58% (G:24.99% B:1.41%) 61.34% (G:25.63% B:1.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.42% (G:9.27% B:0.28%) 38.66% (G:9.39% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities +0.406 +0.806
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.469
Double/Take: +0.418 (-0.051)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.531)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.0%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124

13 point match

pip: 117
score: 2

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--BCCBC---bA-b-babbb--aA:1:-1:1:24:2:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 24

1. XG Roller++ Bar/23 5/1* eq: +0.064
Player:
Opponent: 56.56% (G:26.08% B:1.11%)
43.44% (G:11.93% B:0.53%)
2. XG Roller++ Bar/23 13/9 eq: +0.051 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent: 57.14% (G:18.70% B:0.83%)
42.86% (G:8.83% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 5.

White is Player 1

score: 2
pip: 121

13 point match

pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 2

XGID=----CCCBBa--b--b-babbb-Ba-:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.61% (G:7.08% B:0.12%) 80.44% (G:7.23% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.39% (G:1.74% B:0.08%) 19.56% (G:1.66% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.651 +1.413
Cubeful Equities
No redouble: +0.968 (-0.032)
Redouble/Take: +1.305 (+0.305)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 6.

White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 150

13 point match

pip: 113
score: 2

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-BBbD-B-B-bCa--b-bbba---:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.81% (G:13.60% B:0.46%) 67.98% (G:13.86% B:0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.19% (G:5.45% B:0.16%) 32.02% (G:5.36% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.442 +0.911
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.697
Double/Take: +0.672 (-0.025)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.303)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 7.

White is Player 1

score: 4
pip: 179

13 point match

pip: 139
score: 4

Blue is Player 2

XGID=-a--B-C-B---cE--adacb--AAA:0:0:-1:00:4:4:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.79% (G:31.06% B:1.98%) 70.70% (G:32.91% B:2.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.21% (G:4.86% B:0.19%) 29.30% (G:4.95% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities +0.696 +1.466
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.976 (-0.024)
Double/Take: +1.225 (+0.225)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 8. It should come as no surprise that I screwed up not only the cube decision, but also the checker play with double aces.

White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 158

13 point match

pip: 129
score: 4

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-b--EBC-B-bB-A-d-cba----:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.11% (G:12.10% B:0.37%) 71.01% (G:12.57% B:0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.89% (G:4.72% B:0.12%) 28.99% (G:4.81% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.496 +1.006
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.817
Double/Take: +0.810 (-0.007)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.183)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 158

13 point match

pip: 129
score: 4

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-b--EBC-B-bB-A-d-cba----:1:-1:1:11:4:5:0:13:10
Blue to play 11

1. XG Roller++ 10/9(2) 6/5(2) eq: +0.632
Player:
Opponent: 78.73% (G:13.89% B:0.49%)
21.27% (G:2.87% B:0.09%)
2. XG Roller++ 15/13 6/5(2) eq: +0.604 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent: 79.03% (G:10.05% B:0.25%)
20.97% (G:2.03% B:0.06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 9. Even Stick would probably get this one right.

White is Player 1

score: 4
pip: 2

13 point match

pip: 4
score: 5

Blue is Player 2

XGID=--A-------------------a-a-:1:-1:-1:00:4:5:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 94.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 94.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 5.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 5.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.889 +1.846
Cubeful Equities
No redouble: +0.889 (-0.111)
Redouble/Take: +1.846 (+0.846)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 10.

White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 114

13 point match

pip: 87
score: 4

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-BC-BaDA-----BA-cbbea--a--:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.38% (G:9.96% B:0.06%) 78.12% (G:13.39% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.62% (G:1.84% B:0.06%) 21.88% (G:2.34% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.645 +1.350
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.928 (-0.072)
Double/Take: +1.250 (+0.250)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 11. Hope no one thinks I am bragging, but for the fourth time in the match, I screwed up both the cube action and the checker play, with playing the 43. My play was fourth best.

White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 163

13 point match

pip: 150
score: 5

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-bB-C-CB-AcB---d-c-Ab-A-:0:0:1:00:5:7:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.64% (G:16.84% B:0.74%) 65.64% (G:17.11% B:0.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.36% (G:8.05% B:0.35%) 34.36% (G:8.24% B:0.37%)
Cubeless Equities +0.406 +0.873
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.723 (-0.010)
Double/Take: +0.733
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.267)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 163

13 point match

pip: 150
score: 5

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-bB-C-CB-AcB---d-c-Ab-A-:0:0:1:43:5:7:0:13:10
Blue to play 43

1. XG Roller++ 9/5 8/5 eq: +0.632
Player:
Opponent: 62.19% (G:20.12% B:1.06%)
37.81% (G:11.24% B:0.78%)
2. XG Roller++ 21/14 eq: +0.590 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent: 62.49% (G:15.63% B:0.71%)
37.51% (G:9.64% B:0.41%)
3. XG Roller++ 24/21 13/9 eq: +0.570 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent: 61.43% (G:15.58% B:0.69%)
38.57% (G:7.68% B:0.25%)
4. XG Roller++ 24/21 8/4 eq: +0.542 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 61.19% (G:15.14% B:0.60%)
38.81% (G:7.96% B:0.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 12. Showing cube action at the score and also for money.

White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 160

13 point match

pip: 154
score: 5

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aa-C-CaBB-AcA---d-c-Bb-A-:0:0:1:00:5:7:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.90% (G:26.23% B:1.42%) 60.72% (G:27.10% B:1.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.10% (G:10.32% B:0.56%) 39.28% (G:10.74% B:0.62%)
Cubeless Equities +0.392 +0.868
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.639 (-0.074)
Double/Take: +0.713
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.287)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aa-C-CaBB-AcA---d-c-Bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.81% (G:26.06% B:1.46%) 60.87% (G:26.55% B:1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.19% (G:10.30% B:0.55%) 39.13% (G:10.37% B:0.56%)
Cubeless Equities +0.383 +0.776
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.540
Double/Take: +0.489 (-0.052)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.460)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Position 13. Here's another one that Stick might also get right.

White is Player 1

score: 5
pip: 82

13 point match

pip: 43
score: 7

Blue is Player 2

XGID=-BABBCD------------b-becbA:1:-1:-1:00:5:7:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 95.16% (G:1.54% B:0.02%) 95.20% (G:1.32% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 4.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.920 +1.866
Cubeful Equities
No redouble: +0.952 (-0.048)
Redouble/Take: +1.831 (+0.831)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 14. The only people who never make whoppers are those who consult with bots. Mochy played this match with a PR of 2.8, but he spaced out here when he shipped this cube. Very very few people on the planet average 2.8 or better. Mochy is currently the #1 player in the world on the Giant-32 List.
Hard to believe, but maybe about a dozen people who voted two years ago did not include Mochy in their top 32. What does this prove? It proves that many people who vote are totally clueless ignoramouses who have no business voting.
I am proud to say that I have made many quadruple whoppers this year, fifty times more quadruple whoppers than Mochy has made. Backgammon is a very difficult game, and even the very best players in the world occasionally make enormous whoppers.

White is Player 1

score: 5
pip: 183

13 point match

pip: 125
score: 9

Blue is Player 2

XGID=-----BC-C---cCa--cce--B-B-:0:0:-1:00:5:9:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.58% (G:21.47% B:1.73%) 61.52% (G:21.48% B:1.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.42% (G:5.88% B:0.19%) 38.48% (G:6.01% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities +0.473 +0.982
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.488
Double/Take: +0.074 (-0.414)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.512)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.9%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 15. Just for the helluvit, I am posting the money result after the match score result.

White is Player 2

score: 11
pip: 157

13 point match

pip: 145
score: 5

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aa-B-D-BB--eC---b-cBba---:0:0:1:00:5:11:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.11% (G:22.07% B:0.80%) 65.01% (G:23.10% B:0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.89% (G:6.47% B:0.24%) 34.99% (G:6.65% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities +0.425 +1.092
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.894 (-0.106)
Double/Take: +1.092 (+0.092)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aa-B-D-BB--eC---b-cBba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.39% (G:20.97% B:0.81%) 65.39% (G:22.14% B:0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.61% (G:6.06% B:0.21%) 34.61% (G:6.06% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.463 +0.950
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.689 (-0.012)
Double/Take: +0.702
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.298)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Position 16. A third position that Stick would probably get right over the board. Almost TFG, whatever that means.

White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 79

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 59
score: 0

Blue is Player 2

XGID=-CDC-B-------A---bBbbbc-d-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 95.56% (G:0.65% B:0.00%) 95.73% (G:0.65% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.44% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 4.27% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.918 +1.842
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.982 (-0.018)
Double/Take: +1.815 (+0.815)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Position 17. A fourth one Stick might get right.

White is Player 2

score: 12
pip: 161

13 point match

pip: 160
score: 8

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-D--AeC---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:00:8:12:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 49.01% (G:14.27% B:0.63%) 49.04% (G:14.25% B:0.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 50.99% (G:15.44% B:0.79%) 50.96% (G:15.35% B:0.78%)
Cubeless Equities -0.002 +0.204
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.204 (0.000)
Double/Take: +0.204
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.796)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament
Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 1:08 p.m.
- Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament
  Stick -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 1:47 p.m.
  - Three Tidbits of Wisdom from Monsieur Stick
    Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 3:42 p.m.
  - Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament
    Rico -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 4:51 p.m.
  - Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 5:51 p.m.
    - Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament
      Stick -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 6:30 p.m.
- Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament
  Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 1:48 p.m.
- Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament
  kruidenbuiltje -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 2:50 p.m.
- Mochy-Peever Match #1 Cubes, XG2 ++
  Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 11:31 a.m.

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Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	63.92% (G:18.35% B:0.76%)	63.97% (G:18.74% B:0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.08% (G:9.98% B:0.39%)	36.03% (G:10.08% B:0.41%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.368	+0.756
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.573
Double/Take:	+0.495 (-0.078)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.427)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.4%

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73.94% (G:7.77% B:0.05%)	73.95% (G:7.77% B:0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.06% (G:2.49% B:0.07%)	26.05% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.534	+1.080
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.751 (-0.227)
Redouble/Take:	+0.978
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.022)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.64% (G:16.84% B:0.74%)	65.64% (G:17.11% B:0.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.36% (G:8.05% B:0.35%)	34.36% (G:8.24% B:0.37%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.406	+0.873
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.723 (-0.010)
Double/Take:	+0.733
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.267)

Best Cube action: Double / Take