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pay now or later?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 9:53 p.m.

In Response To: pay now or later? (rambiz)

What I would look at in this particular position.

• The race. We usually need to be significantly ahead in order to pay now. After the roll we're up by 22 (18) pips. That's a lot at this point in the game.


• Number of shots I'll be leaving. Ideally when we pay now we'd like to leave the absolute minimum number of shots but in general it can be right to pay now with up to 13 shots. The real scare number of shots I found is 15. If you're going to leave 15 shots by paying now you better have some damn good reasons for paying now because you can almost always leave that many shots or less if you wait a roll so you're basically freerolling by not paying now when you have to leave 15 or more shots.


• How much of an improvement is it if I get away with paying now/am I home free if I do pay now? It certainly is a big improvement if we get away with paying now here though we aren't exactly gin if we do. We have our outfield spares in good spots though our inner board spares being buried will hurt us trying to clear those outfield points.


• What's going on with my opp's position? Is it getting better, worse, or keeping the status quo? He has a solid 4pt board which while a bit swiss cheesey is still a real threat if we're hit. One big factor of this position I believe at work that may be overlooked by some is that the opponent's position is in a way out of timing and over the next sequence or two he has to hurt his position. (esp. if he rolls large numbers) It may be better to wait until this time to try to clear our rearmost outfield point.


• How does the roll play otherwise? Well, otherwise it plays 6/2 6/1 otherwise known as 'like refried ass'. This is another point I think people will over value here. It seems pretty bad to kill the 6pt but we should be able to remake our board into a 4pt board pretty easily and our only goal really is to play behind the anchor. All our rolls next turn should play just fine and again, due to our opponent's timing, it may be worth waiting.

All that being said I would have payed now OtB with 14/10 14/9 but suspect it's very close for the reasons stated and the fact that you posted it almost assures me that paying later is correct. If that's the case I imagine an easy variant where the opponent has more timing will make paying now correct.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• pay now or later?
  rambiz -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 8:19 p.m.
  • pay now or later?
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 8:28 p.m.
    • pay now or later?
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 28 November 2011, at 2:49 p.m.
      • pay now or later?
        Sam Pottle -- Monday, 28 November 2011, at 10:20 p.m.
  • pay now or later?
    Stick -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 9:53 p.m.
    • pay now or later?
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 10:04 p.m.
    • pay now or later?
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 10:04 p.m.
  • pay now or later? RO
    rambiz -- Monday, 28 November 2011, at 6:32 p.m.
    • pay now or later? RO
      Stick -- Monday, 28 November 2011, at 10:17 p.m.
      • pay now or later? RO
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 28 November 2011, at 11:01 p.m.
        • pay now or later? RO
          Stick -- Monday, 28 November 2011, at 11:03 p.m.
          • pay now or later? RO
            rambiz -- Tuesday, 29 November 2011, at 4:27 p.m.