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A nice little 4-1 to play

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 10:27 p.m.

In Response To: A nice little 4-1 to play (Snua)

Two candidate plays, bar/20 and bar/24 8/4. Which play wins more gammons? I'm not sure. Which play loses more gammons? bar/20 for sure as it leaves two blots hanging when the opponent is definitely going to pounce with a strong board when he can. The real question, which play wins more games? For bar/20 to be right it would have to make up for all the extra gammons lost at a ration of 1:2. In other words, if we believe that bar/20 loses 8% more gammons then it would have to win at least 4% more games to be right. That's where my analysis would be done using this method as there is no way in Hades bar/20 could possibly win that much more. bar/24 8/4.

The other more natural way to look at the position is to imagine how it will play out over the next few rolls as they really define the game. It will be won or lost for the most part after the next few plys. If we play bar/20 we will be hit, either by the couple indirects [61 52] or pointed on on the 20pt [31 41 43 11 33] That's 1/3rd of the rolls that are excellent for our opponent. I won't try to group the rest of his rolls now but there will be a few that are awful and a lot of numbers where he hits loose on the 20pt.

If we just play 8/4 we have left a position that almost has to improve next turn. We will have some escaping numbers, either 4s, 6s, or both depending on how our opponent improves on the upcoming turn. If he does make the bar point note that our sixes do not play anymore and in a prime v. prime like this that is a good thing.

If we play 8/4 our opponent doesn't have any way to split his back checkers other than the rolls that run all the way out [61 62 52] and the kicker [32]. This is either because the rolls play so well on his own side of the board or he can't afford to split when his position isn't otherwise consolidated.

Being behind in the race in a prime v. prime position is where you want to be assuming you have the pips to play. It may seem like part of the problem here is that if we don't step up bar/20 we won't have the pips to play but again, we still have escaping numbers regardless and if not, our prime is likely to strengthen next turn thanks to our great distribution of spares.

bar/24 8/4 is clear to me again.

Stick

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