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Mochy-Peever Match #2 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament
Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov In Response To: Mochy-Peever Match #2 Cubes, GG 13pter, Dubrovnik Tournament (Paul Weaver)
Date: Monday, 28 November 2011, at 11:27 a.m.
Paul, I hope you split posts like this one in two smaller posts next time.
I will do half of them.
1. I like blue's game if he hits, but what if he misses? If he misses, suddenly I dont like where this game is going. Pipcount is the same, next roll white covers 18pt. While hit dance, is difficult position for white, and blue wished he doubled a roll earlier, it doesn't happen that often. Considering volatility in the position, I would not be surprised if this is a double. Still, I say ND/T
2. I don't know, looks too good to me.
3. Better position + ahead in the pipcount = Double. D/T
4. Still D/T Now only Take part is in question.
5. Gap on 4pt is not good for white, but this defect is compensated, at least to some extent,by having no blue checkers on 6pt. It is not obvious whos EPC lower. Looks like a 5vs5/6vs6 rolls position. NRD/T
6. Even in pipcount, even in checkers off, better in distribution. I counted 17 rolls for white and 15 rolls for blue where they take at least 2 checkers off. Per Boot Camp formula: [16-5]/7 rounded down=1, that is take a pip down. RD/T
7. I will tell you what I told my opponent a day ago when he decided to double: Hmmm, not sure. Looks close.
8. Those blots in White's homeboard make me worry for him. I see this scenario: Blue hits, White hits back, Blue picks up couple blots and wins a gammon. This far behind indicates a big double. This would not be a cube I would like to see. Take is less clear to me. I am guessing Blue is 2-to-1 fav. here. And wins perhaps 15% gammons, but loses a few once in a while as well. If it were 3a2a, with these numbers it would be close, I think. ATS it has to be easier for the trailer to take. D/T.
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