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Daily Quiz 11/23: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 28 November 2011, at 3:17 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 11/23 (Daily Quiz)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 101 25 point match pip: 104 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBBB--------A-bbd-dbAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	79.47% (G: 12.09% B: 0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.53% (G: 2.43% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.688
Redouble:	+1.392
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.868 (-0.132)
Redouble/Take:	+1.265 (+0.265)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Prime vs. prime problems are notoriously sensitive to the pip count. Here's a variant:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 101 25 point match pip: 99 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBBB---A------bbd-dbAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	74.23% (G: 10.53% B: 0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.77% (G: 3.52% B: 0.14%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.556
Redouble:	+1.126
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.751 (-0.216)
Redouble/Take:	+0.967
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.033)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 117 25 point match pip: 150 score: 12 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBaCB-B-B-c-----BbAbbd-A:1:1:1:45:12:0:0:25:10
Blue to play 45

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 8/4*	eq: +0.157
	Player: Opponent: 57.79% (G:21.41% B:0.95%) 42.21% (G:18.36% B:0.68%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 10/6	eq: +0.157
	Player: Opponent: 55.94% (G:18.47% B:0.79%) 44.06% (G:14.20% B:0.44%)
3.	XG Roller+	Bar/16	eq: +0.149 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 57.70% (G:19.84% B:0.97%) 42.30% (G:18.57% B:0.66%)
4.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 5/1	eq: +0.132 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 55.04% (G:18.89% B:0.67%) 44.96% (G:14.57% B:0.48%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Same position for money:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 117 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 150 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBaCB-B-B-c-----BbAbbd-A:1:1:1:45:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 45

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 8/4*	eq: +0.394
	Player: Opponent: 57.79% (G:21.80% B:0.93%) 42.21% (G:18.42% B:0.67%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 10/6	eq: +0.360 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 55.96% (G:18.44% B:0.80%) 44.04% (G:14.52% B:0.46%)
3.	XG Roller+	Bar/16	eq: +0.354 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 57.58% (G:19.32% B:0.91%) 42.42% (G:18.72% B:0.68%)
4.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 5/1	eq: +0.335 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 55.10% (G:18.96% B:0.69%) 44.90% (G:14.95% B:0.48%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 110 25 point match pip: 117 score: 13 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BBBCBA----A-A-abbd-b-bA:0:0:1:00:13:4:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	84.36% (G: 21.22% B: 1.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	15.64% (G: 5.21% B: 0.28%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.863
Double:	+1.673
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.950 (-0.050)
Double/Take:	+1.472 (+0.472)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Same position for money without Jacoby:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 110 Money session pip: 117 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BBBCBA----A-A-abbd-b-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	84.59% (G: 21.02% B: 1.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	15.41% (G: 4.92% B: 0.25%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.860
Double:	+1.695
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.990 (-0.010)
Double/Take:	+1.595 (+0.595)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 11/23
  Daily Quiz -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 2:29 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/23
    KenB -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 5:59 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/23
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 9:40 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/23
    Bill Calton -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 12:21 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/23
    Schreib -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 12:57 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/23
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 9:28 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/23: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 28 November 2011, at 3:17 p.m.