Thanks to all the contributors, so far.
Stick hinted all rolls play safe after 6-2 6-1, but 4-5 and 4-6 blot. However there are not many blotting numbers and for me this argument still favors playing safe. I hadn't worked through upcoming numbers and thought there were much more blotting rolls
Casper mentioned the possibility of running from the 11 point; leaving a man back. Something I hadn't think about, either. This argument favors paying now! I want to add that dumping checkers with 6-1, 6-2 hurts in the race. All in all, I personally believe the bot overestimates White's chances after a hit if we pay now.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 116 | | 7 point match | pip: 103
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---CCbB-CB-b--B--abb-b-bb-:1:-1:1:54:5:5:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/1 | eq: +0.220 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.02% (G:4.35% B:0.07%)
38.98% (G:5.53% B:0.06%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.218...+0.222)
Duration: 46 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/10 14/9 | eq: +0.215 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.74% (G:4.27% B:0.22%)
39.26% (G:4.40% B:0.03%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.213...+0.217)
Duration: 51 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 3. | 2 ply | 14/9 8/4 | eq: +0.136 (-0.084) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.81% (G:4.64% B:0.15%)
43.19% (G:6.09% B:0.08%) | |
|
| 4. | 2 ply | 9/4 8/4 | eq: +0.070 (-0.151) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.48% (G:5.06% B:0.14%)
46.52% (G:8.46% B:0.08%) | |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61912136
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross